Checklist

Uncertainty & Evidence Checklist for Decisions

An interactive checklist teams can use before any data-informed decision to surface assumptions, measure uncertainty, assign owners, and capture a monitoring and rollback plan. Saves the checklist response so teams can track follow-through and learn from outcomes.

Interactive Tool

Uncertainty & Evidence Checklist for Decisions

Purpose: Use this quick interactive checklist before acting on data. It helps teams name the decision, surface key assumptions and uncertainty, check evidence quality, and capture monitoring and contingency plans so the decision can be evaluated and reversed if needed.

When to use: Any time a decision relies on data, models, or important assumptions — especially when outcomes matter to customers, operations, safety, or cost.

How to use: Complete the fields below together (5–15 minutes). Assign an owner for each item, give short notes, and rate confidence where requested. Submit to save the record and create a traceable audit of the decision and follow-up actions.

Give the decision a concise name (e.g., 'Reduce delivery cut-off time' or 'Deploy new model for lead scoring').
Date of this checklist entry (YYYY-MM-DD).
Who participated in this assessment? Names and roles.
If yes, list the specific outcomes or metrics you will use to judge success in the notes field.
Example: 'Reduce average delivery time from 48h to 36h; measure mean and 90th percentile.'
Who will be accountable for tracking these metrics?
List assumptions that must hold true for the expected outcome (e.g., demand level, resource availability).
Capture the most important assumptions and any evidence for them.
Who will validate or monitor these assumptions?
If not sure, note likely biases (time period, customers, geography, device).
E.g., 'Data from pilot region only; may not generalize.'
E.g., 'Collect 2 more weeks of data across regions before full rollout.'
If a model or estimate is used, record the uncertainty bounds or a qualitative confidence level.
E.g., 'Estimated lift 3% ± 1.5% (95% CI).'
Briefly describe the outcome under optimistic and pessimistic assumptions.
Keep each scenario to one short sentence if possible.
Define what will be measured, cadence, and the owner for monitoring.
E.g., 'Monitor daily delivery times; weekly summary to ops; trigger if 90th percentile > target for 2 consecutive weeks.'
If yes, summarize the rollback or mitigation steps and triggers.
Be explicit about triggers and who has authority to execute rollback.
List audiences, key messages, and timing for updates.
E.g., 'Inform customer support and sales on day of rollout; prepare FAQ.'
A single-team summary of how confident you feel given assumptions and evidence.
1.0 10.0
List the immediate actions after approval (who does what, and by when).
Name and role of the person submitting this checklist.
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