Tool

Waitlist & Turn Prediction Quick Model

Interactive quick model hosts can use to record inputs, follow clear calculation rules, save predictions, and capture communication scripts. Designed to help teams improve turn estimates, reduce guest frustration, and maximize covers while building a dataset to calibrate predictions over time.

Interactive Tool

Waitlist & Turn Prediction Quick Model

What this tool does

This interactive tool helps hosts estimate table turn times using a few simple inputs and a lightweight, margin-aware calculation approach. It collects your inputs and prediction so you can save records, compare predicted vs actual turns later, and steadily improve accuracy.

How to use

  1. Enter the party details and current conditions.
  2. Paste or enter historical average turns for the current time slot (see CSV format below).
  3. Follow the calculation rules shown here to compute a baseline expected turn time.
  4. Add a buffer (desired margin) and adjust for server/table effects to get the time you will promise guests.
  5. Save the prediction and use the record later to compare with the actual turn time and improve the model.

CSV historical data format

Paste lines like: 11:00-13:00,45 (time-range, average turn in minutes). Provide several recent weeks or the averages for the matching daypart.

Calculation rules (simple, human-friendly)

1. Baseline = average turn for current time slot from historical data.

2. Party size adjustment = (party_size - base_party) * party_size_minutes. Use base_party = 2 (or adjust to your kitchen). Example: if party_size=4 and party_size_minutes=5, adjustment = (4-2)*5 = 10 minutes.

3. Server adjustment = multiply by server_performance_factor (1.0 = typical, 0.9 = faster, 1.1 = slower).

4. Table type multiplier = multiply by the table-type multiplier (select below; e.g., booths or large tables often take longer).

5. Predicted turn (before buffer) = (Baseline + Party size adjustment) * Server factor * Table multiplier.

6. Promise time = Predicted turn (before buffer) + Desired buffer minutes.

Example

Baseline = 40 minutes (historical). Party size = 5; party_size_minutes = 5 -> adjustment = (5-2)*5 = 15 -> 40 + 15 = 55. Server factor = 1.0. Table multiplier = 1.15 -> 55 * 1.15 = 63.25 -> round to 63. Add desired buffer 5 -> promise 68 minutes.

Enter the number of guests in the party.
Choose the table type that best matches the seating.
Optional — helps track individual or shift performance.
Select the daypart that best matches right now.
Paste lines like: 11:00-13:00,45 or provide several recent averages. At minimum, include the average for the selected daypart.
How many extra minutes to add per guest beyond base_party (suggest 4–6).
The party size assumed by the baseline (suggest 2).
1.0 = typical. Use 0.9 for faster servers, 1.1 for slower. This multiplies the baseline + party adjustment.
Extra minutes to add to avoid overpromising (suggest 3–10).
After following the calculation rules above, enter the final promise time in minutes. Save this so you can compare later to actual.
Use and adapt this script when telling guests their wait time. Example: 'Thanks — the kitchen is about X minutes from turning this table. We’ll text or call you if it’s sooner.'
Any special conditions (large take-out orders, private event, equipment outage) that might affect turns.
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