Advanced Forecasting & Scenario Modeling Workbook (seed)

{ "Title": "Advanced Forecasting & Scenario Modeling Workbook", "IntroductionHtml": "

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Stress-test plans, collect scenarios, prepare contingency actions

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Use this workbook to capture realistic scenarios your team wants to evaluate—sales shocks, input-cost inflation, staffing variability, price changes, or menu-mix shifts. Save structured assumptions so scenarios can be compared, shared, and run later with a calculation engine or expert review. This form collects the scenario definition and key stochastic inputs; the platform will store your scenario for analysis or export.\n

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Tip: Start with a short, testable hypothesis (for example: "10% sustained drop in weekday lunch sales for 4 weeks") and record the most important levers you would modify in response (price, staffing, promotions, menu mix).

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", "SubmitLabel": "Save Scenario", "SuccessMessage": "Scenario saved. You can return to run analyses, export the scenario for model runs, or share it with your team. For full probabilistic runs and executive-ready outputs, connect this workbook to a calculation service or agent that performs Monte Carlo and sensitivity analysis.", "DataType": "AdvancedForecastingScenario", "SchemaVersion": "1.0", "Fields": [ { "Key": "scenarioName", "FieldType": "text", "Label": "Scenario name", "HelpText": "Short, memorable name (example: 'Winter demand dip — 10%')", "Required": true }, { "Key": "scenarioDescription", "FieldType": "textarea", "Label": "Scenario description", "HelpText": "Describe the trigger, assumptions, scope (locations) and why you want to test this scenario", "Required": false }, { "Key": "timeHorizon", "FieldType": "select", "Label": "Time horizon", "HelpText": "Period the scenario covers", "Required": true, "Options": [ { "Value": "1w", "Label": "1 week" }, { "Value": "2w", "Label": "2 weeks" }, { "Value": "4w", "Label": "4 weeks" }, { "Value": "13w", "Label": "13 weeks (quarter)" }, { "Value": "6m", "Label": "6 months" }, { "Value": "12m", "Label": "12 months" } ] }, { "Key": "baselineSales", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Baseline period sales (currency)", "HelpText": "Typical sales for the chosen period (enter total for location or enterprise)", "Required": true }, { "Key": "salesVariancePct", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Sales variability (std dev %)", "HelpText": "Enter an estimated percent standard deviation for sales during the horizon (use historical weekly variability if available). Example: 10 for 10%.", "Required": true }, { "Key": "foodCostInflationPct", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Food cost inflation (annualized %, or period)", "HelpText": "Expected change in food costs over the horizon (enter percent). Use negative for deflation.", "Required": false }, { "Key": "laborCostInflationPct", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Labor cost inflation (%, wages or benefits)", "HelpText": "Expected percent change to labor cost inputs.", "Required": false }, { "Key": "otherCostInflationPct", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Other operating cost change (%)", "HelpText": "Expected change for utilities, packaging, rent escalation, etc.", "Required": false }, { "Key": "priceChangePct", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Planned price change (%)", "HelpText": "Planned change to menu prices as a lever in this scenario (positive or negative).", "Required": false }, { "Key": "menuMixShiftToHighMarginPct", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Menu-mix shift toward high-margin items (%)", "HelpText": "Estimated percentage point shift of sales toward higher-margin items (example: 5 means +5 percentage points).", "Required": false }, { "Key": "staffingChangePct", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Planned staffing change (hours or cost %)", "HelpText": "Planned percent change to labor hours or labor cost during the scenario (negative for reductions).", "Required": false }, { "Key": "monteCarloRuns", "FieldType": "number", "Label": "Monte Carlo runs", "HelpText": "Number of random trials for stochastic simulation (store the intent here; actual runs require a calculation service).", "Required": true, "Default": 1000 }, { "Key": "correlationAssumption", "FieldType": "radio", "Label": "Correlation assumption between sales and costs", "HelpText": "Choose a simple correlation model for scenario runs. More advanced models can be applied later.", "Required": true, "Options": [ { "Value": "independent", "Label": "Independent (no correlation)" }, { "Value": "positive", "Label": "Positively correlated (sales and costs move together)" }, { "Value": "negative", "Label": "Negatively correlated (sales rise when some costs fall)" } ] }, { "Key": "policyLevers", "FieldType": "checkbox", "Label": "Policy levers to test", "HelpText": "Select which operational or pricing levers you want the analysis to consider.", "Options": [ { "Value": "price", "Label": "Price change" }, { "Value": "menu", "Label": "Menu mix / promotions" }, { "Value": "staffing", "Label": "Staffing / scheduling" }, { "Value": "portion", "Label": "Portion / recipe cost" }, { "Value": "supplier", "Label": "Supplier substitution / ingredient change" } ] }, { "Key": "outputsRequested", "FieldType": "checkbox", "Label": "Desired outputs", "HelpText": "Select the primary outputs you want to see in an executive briefing or model run.", "Options": [ { "Value": "cashImpact", "Label": "Cash impact (period)" }, { "Value": "marginImpact", "Label": "Gross margin impact" }, { "Value": "opexImpact", "Label": "Operating cost / labor impact" }, { "Value": "breakEvenDays", "Label": "Break-even / runway days" }, { "Value": "inventoryHolding", "Label": "Inventory holding / spoilage risk" }, { "Value": "guestSatisfaction", "Label": "Guest satisfaction / service risk" } ] }, { "Key": "contingencyActions", "FieldType": "textarea", "Label": "Initial contingency actions to consider", "HelpText": "List the actions you'd consider if the scenario materializes (e.g., temporary menu, targeted promotions, staffing cuts, supplier switches).", "Required": false }, { "Key": "notes", "FieldType": "textarea", "Label": "Internal notes and priorities", "HelpText": "Permissions, owners, or dependencies for running and responding to this scenario.", "Required": false } ] }